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Montana will always be high on the list of places to visit for most people, which makes the state's prospects for tourism growth always good.

Since so many variables impact the rate of visitation to Montana, there will always be dips, but the overall trend will be upward, so long as the worldwide population continues and there are more people wanting to visit the state, according to Norma P. Nickerson, Director of the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research at the University of Montana. Nickerson was among those presenting at the Montana Outlook Seminar.

Seven of the past 11 years have shown growth in domestic travel in the US and in Montana. In 11 years (2001-2011) US domestic travel has increased 7.2 percent while Montana nonresident visitor numbers have increased 7.8 percent.

International visitation from Canada and Mexico increased 8 percent, nationally. More visitors are coming from China, Brazil and India.

In 2011, nonresident travel to Montana brought in two billion new dollars to the state.

In a survey of Montana tourism businesses, 48 percent anticipate growth in 2012, and 40 percent believe it will be about the same as 2011.

The years of decline in nonresident travel, are attributable to a wide range of factors that impact people's decision about whether to travel or not. Events like the 9-11 terrorist attack contributed to a decline in 2001. Other declines over the years are attributable to the state of the economy, high price of fuel, significant weather events, or the value of the dollar.

Besides declines these things may generate increases. For example following the decline because of the 9-11 attack, the next year the same event contributed to an increase because nervous travelers decided to travel closer to home, which benefited Montana.

Last year's tourism was a year buffeted by weather events, according to Nickerson. With help from La Nina, the 2010-11 ski season was the best on record for Montana, recording a 9 percent increase over 2009-10, representing nearly 1.5 million skier visits. Thirty-five percent of all skiers are nonresidents, meaning that 511,575 nonresidents came to ski and spent new dollars in the state.

All that snow melted in the spring, however, impacting other recreational activities in a more negative way. With run-off from the mountains lasting well into July, it prompted some to postpone their visit to the state as fishing and traveling around the state was made difficult.

The Going –to-the-Sun- Road in Glacier National Park had its second ever latest opening of July 13.

The Beartooth Highway had a two-week delay to opening because of the heavy snowpack, and the flooding delayed fishing, closed roads and stopped Amtrak for much of June. Amtrack numbers in Montana dropped 66 percent from June 2010.

With those setbacks, Montana's visitation numbers decreased slighting in 2011 compared to 2010, but still exceeded 10.2 million nonresident visitors.

An interesting trend, Nickerson underscored, is that airport deboardings at Gallatin Field in Bozeman, surpassed those of Billings in 2010 and in 2011.

Three percent of the visitors to Yellowstone National Park are from overseas.

Motel occupancy in the state is doing well. Nickerson pointed out that, "As you head east you cannot get a room" – a manifestation of the intense activity in the oil fields.

"We are seeing a change in group dynamics," said Nickerson, "The number of cars have increased and the number of people in the cars have decreased." That means more room rentals.

Visitation to the national parks in Montana dropped 12 percent in 2011, after having increased in 2009 and 2010. Yellowstone Park saw a decline of seven percent, while Glacier National Park visitation dropped 20 percent.